{"id":492,"date":"2020-02-04T16:23:39","date_gmt":"2020-02-04T16:23:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/?p=492"},"modified":"2020-02-17T04:23:47","modified_gmt":"2020-02-17T04:23:47","slug":"housing-supply-demand-mythbusting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/492","title":{"rendered":"Housing: Supply &#038; Demand MYTHBUSTING!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In a recent post to a popular DC listserve, there was this comment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>A new ADU (and ADUs at scale) will  &#8220;contribute to affordability&#8221; in terms of <strong>adding supply<\/strong>,<em><strong> and thereby  reducing the overall pressure for price appreciation<\/strong><\/em> and the concomitant  pressure to convert existing lower priced housing to standards and  expectations which satisfy higher priced segments of the market.<\/p><cite>Richard Layman rlaymandc@yahoo.com, Saturday, February 1, 2020, Comment on Columbia Heights listserve <a href=\"mailto:columbia_heights@yahoogroups.com\">columbia_heights@yahoogroups.com<\/a><\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The above intriguing comment seems to not consider the concept that #HousingIsNotACommodity and rather #HousingIsAHumanRight . . . right?  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, the lack of a race and class analysis in pubic discussions around housing and jobs at this point is frustratingly maddening.  Essentially, one can enjoy a &#8220;LIVABALE WALKABLE&#8221; city only if you are young,  professional, single, and likely white. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Going to the facts spells that housing is a human need not a product and exposes this false sense that supply of any new housing relieves some kind of &#8220;pressure.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>First, let&#8217;s take a gander at the <strong>Income Gap analysis<\/strong> vis-a-vis housing costs in the City:<br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/local\/wp\/2016\/11\/02\/net-worth-of-white-households-in-d-c-region-is-81-times-greater-than-black-households\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/local\/wp\/2016\/11\/02\/net-worth-of-white-households-in-d-c-region-is-81-times-greater-than-black-households\/<\/a><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dcfpi.org\/all\/economic-inequality-in-dc-reflects-disparities-in-income-wages-wealth-and-economic-mobility-policy-solutions-should-too\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.dcfpi.org\/all\/economic-inequality-in-dc-reflects-disparities-in-income-wages-wealth-and-economic-mobility-policy-solutions-should-too\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"908\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/economic-inequality-blog-fig1-768x908-1.png\" alt=\"economic-inequality-blog-fig1-768x908.png\" class=\"wp-image-493\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/economic-inequality-blog-fig1-768x908-1.png 768w, http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/economic-inequality-blog-fig1-768x908-1-254x300.png 254w, http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/economic-inequality-blog-fig1-768x908-1-624x738.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This  means the posture of continuing to construct more and more of the status quo unaffordable housing for single wealthy professionals without an equally important push for getting longtime DC residents and Black families real jobs with real pay to be able to stay here during the modern day goldrush is simply ignorant and  discriminatory.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, even if policy makers and the Mayor could wrangle  some economic systems that actually helps longtime DC residents and  families, there&#8217;s no way they will be implemented in a timely way to  keep up or be substantial enough to help most people becoming more and  more vulnerable to displacement.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The  HOT real estate market in DC is appreciating way too fast for most folks  to keep up with rents, taxes, and housing costs generally:<\/strong><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/dc.curbed.com\/washington-dc-market-reports\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/dc.curbed.com\/washington-dc-market-reports<\/a><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bizjournals.com\/washington\/news\/2019\/09\/04\/as-d-c-area-housing-market-booms-researchers-warn.html\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.bizjournals.com\/washington\/news\/2019\/09\/04\/as-d-c-area-housing-market-booms-researchers-warn.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom-line, given the absolute real estate fire of the last decade and construction of tens of thousands of unaffordable single professional housing, there is absolutely no excuse that anyone should be pushing the idea that constructing any housing type at any cost is ok without a race and class analysis, especially  considering the ballyhoo&#8217;d equitable development as expressed in Comp  Plan Framework changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MORE FACTS THAT DISPEL SUPPLY &amp; DEMAND MYTH:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><strong>NEW UNITS DON&#8217;T BRING PRICES DOWN<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The DC Zoning Chair suitably explains as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/oTFXDTg8KPg\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen=\"\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Tens of thousands of new largely luxury studios\/1bedrooms have been built in DC, but prices keep going up and up and up:<br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoylogy\/status\/1224692194277298179\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoylogy\/status\/1224692194277298179<\/a><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/z3bnme\/tons-of-new-apartments-are-being-built-that-almost-no-one-can-afford\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en_us\/article\/z3bnme\/tons-of-new-apartments-are-being-built-that-almost-no-one-can-afford<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">&#8220;An increased supply and pipeline are not interrupting rent growth.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BKzx0nDyuR\">pic.twitter.com\/BKzx0nDyuR<\/a><\/p>\u2014 Coy McKinney \ud83d\udc68\ud83c\udffe\u200d\ud83c\udf3e\ud83c\udff4 (@ecoylogy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ecoylogy\/status\/1222931669004488704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 30, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote> <script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>DC POPULATION GROWTH SLOWING DOWN <\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The  influx of DC newcomers (old rhetoric: 1,000 new people a month as  routinely expressed by Council Chairman Phil Mendelson) has become a  trickle now, and in some months there&#8217;s more a net exit of people. <br><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/wamu.org\/story\/19\/01\/30\/the-reason-d-c-s-once-dramatic-population-growth-is-slowing-down-and-why-thats-not-so-bad\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/wamu.org\/story\/19\/01\/30\/the-reason-d-c-s-once-dramatic-population-growth-is-slowing-down-and-why-thats-not-so-bad\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em>WE MUST ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENTLY VACANT UNITS IN THE CITY<\/em><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>So what of the 30,000 vacant units according to the census, where the vacancy information gathered by the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/acs\" target=\"_blank\">American Housing Survey (AHS)<\/a>  conducted biennially by the U.S. Census (more info about the survey  below) shows this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"942\" height=\"362\" src=\"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-12-17-at-6.19.35-AM.png\" alt=\"Screen Shot 2019-12-17 at 6.19.35 AM.png\" class=\"wp-image-497\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-12-17-at-6.19.35-AM.png 942w, http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-12-17-at-6.19.35-AM-300x115.png 300w, http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-12-17-at-6.19.35-AM-768x295.png 768w, http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/Screen-Shot-2019-12-17-at-6.19.35-AM-624x240.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This  table (B25004)&nbsp;represents&nbsp;the 5-year estimate from the AHS for  Washington, D.C.&nbsp; This timeframe reflects 60 months of collected data  and is the most reliable metric for estimating how many housing units  fall into each of these categories.&nbsp; There are also 1-year and 3-year  estimates, explained <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/programs-surveys\/acs\/guidance\/estimates.html\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.&nbsp; The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is the smallest level at which the survey reports data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The substantial numbers of vacant units demonstrate how much foreign investment capital is parking itself in these new luxury buildings:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bisnow.com\/washington-dc\/news\/capital-markets\/foreign-investment-in-dc-expected-to-increase-next-year-102315\">https:\/\/www.bisnow.com\/washington-dc\/news\/capital-markets\/foreign-investment-in-dc-expected-to-increase-next-year-102315<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Empty units do not create successful inclusive DC communities<\/strong>.<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>The biggest purveyors of the supply &amp; demand myth are the so-called   urbanists &#8212; largely white single professionals moving back into the cities after their grandparents and parents failed suburban experience, or their cohorts from the mega-real estate industry.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We&#8217;ve asked them to publicly debate these issues openly: David Alpert, Alex Baca, and Cheryl Cort.<\/strong><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/ggwash.org\/about\/staff-board\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/ggwash.org\/about\/staff-board<\/a><br>* <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.smartergrowth.net\/about\/contactstaff\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.smartergrowth.net\/about\/contactstaff\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>In conclusion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>IF  WE WANT A SUCCESSFUL INCLUSIVE CITY &#8212; THAT MEANS WE GOTTA HAVE  POLICIES AND PEOPLE THAT ESPOUSE SUCH IDEALS, NOT JUST STATE THE  RHETORIC. WE ALSO HAVE TO HAVE REAL FACTS AND PEOPLE-CENTERED ANALYSIS  BEFORE US, NOT JUST REAL ESTATE DOGMA.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a recent post to a popular DC listserve, there was this comment: A new ADU (and ADUs at scale) will &#8220;contribute to affordability&#8221; in terms of adding supply, and thereby reducing the overall pressure for price appreciation and the concomitant pressure to convert existing lower priced housing to standards and expectations which satisfy higher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,15,37,16,35,18,17,33,2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-492","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-all","category-articles","category-construction","category-data","category-displacement","category-housing","category-issues","category-planning","category-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=492"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/492\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":501,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/492\/revisions\/501"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.dc4reality.org\/updates\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}